Insights | Precious Metals Market Analysis – Goldman Rock Capital

Precious Metals Market Analysis

Goldman Rock Capital — October 2025

Executive takeaways (for CIOs): Gold at record highs amid policy and reserve demand; silver nearing its 2011 peak with industrial leverage; platinum in deficit while palladium balances—structure exposure around tier-1 assets and downside-protected vehicles.

Macro Regime & Price Action

Gold: YTD +50%; LBMA >$4,000 (Oct 8). Drivers: risk premia, anticipated Fed easing, renewed ETF inflows.

Silver: YTD +65–70%; tight supply and industrial demand amplified by USD softness.

Expect buy-the-dip behavior near $3,700 / $3,450 support zones; keep dry powder for 8–12% corrections.

Demand Structure — Who’s Buying and Why

Central banks: continued accumulation; diversification from USD assets; gold share of global reserves rising.

Investment flows: ETF inflows resumed 2025; silver benefits from gold momentum but with higher beta.

Industrial pull: silver levered to solar PV and semis; platinum to H₂ economy pilots; palladium easing with ICE decline.

Supply Dynamics

Mine supply constrained by ESG and permitting; silver’s by-product nature limits responsiveness. Platinum supply down ~3% in 2025 from South Africa constraints.

Implication: prioritize tier-1 jurisdictions and royalty/streaming models for downside protection.

Scenario Map (12–18 Months)

Soft landing + gradual Fed cuts (40%)
Gold $3.5–4.2k | Silver >$50 | Pt deficit persists.

Risk flare + faster cuts (35%)
Gold >$4.3k | Silver >$55 | Pt tightens.

Sticky inflation (25%)
Gold $3.3–3.6k | Silver $40–46 | Pt supported, Pd soft.

Portfolio Construction (Institutions)

Core sleeve 40–60%: Physical-replicating gold exposure + option overlay.
Convexity 15–25%: Silver vehicles; buy dips 8–12%; covered calls.
Alpha 15–25%: Royalty/streaming companies; tier-1 miners only.
Thematic 5–10%: Platinum deficit plays; recycling; H₂ optionalities.

Risk Radar

Policy path & rates direction.
ETF flow reversals.
Supply shocks (SA PGMs, weather, permits).
USD spikes pressuring silver more than gold.

Action Checklist

Stage into gold on pullbacks ($3,700/$3,450); protect with puts 5–7% OTM.
Size silver smaller; treat >$50 as breakout-retest zone.
Accumulate platinum low-cost vehicles; keep palladium tactical.
Favor royalty/streamers & tier-1 jurisdictions; avoid weak balance sheets.

Monitor central-bank purchase cadence (WGC monthly/quarterly) as a leading indicator of structural demand.